Pulp Innovation Chapter LXX: What if the Scenario is Wrong?

The point of scenarios isn’t necessarily to be able to predict the actual future, but to identify discontinuities and anticipate them, and bring new needs or opportunities to light. When concerns are raised that Accipiter’s scenarios might be wrong or perhaps placing too much emphasis on the wrong market, Marlow explains, “We can either assume the future will look a lot like today, and plan new products and services based on the needs and demands we believe are valid now, or we can try to understand what the potential futures are and anticipate those needs. That’s innovation.”
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